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Decanter Fine Wine Tracker
UK Merchants/Brokers
Ancient & Modern: +44 (0)1793 73 1886
Berry Bros & Rudd: +44 (0)12 5634 0154
Bibendum: +44 (0)20 7449 4120
Bordeaux Index: +44 (0)20 7253 2110
Bordeaux Wine Investments: +44 (0)1732 779 343
Corney & Barrow: +44 (0)20 7265 2400
David J Watt (Fine Wines Ltd):+44 (0)15 3041 3953
Richard Kihl: +44 (0)17 2845 4455
Farr Vintners: +44 (0)20 7821 2000
Fine & Rare Wines: +44 (0)20 8960 1995
John Armit: +44 (0)20 7908 0600
Justerini & Brooks: +44 (0)20 7484 6433
Morgan Classic Wines: +44 (0)1273 487 000
Seckford Wines: +44 (0)13 9444 6622
Wilkinson Vintners: +44 (0)20 7616 0404
www.investdrinks.org is a useful website, with advice about guarding against fraudulent or disreputable fine wine traders.
En primeur
En primeur, which effectively began in the 1970s, almost invariably represents the cheapest offer at which top Bordeaux wines will be offered to consumers. While the châteaux always offer their wines en primeur, as a wine future, merchants usually only run en primeur campaigns when vintages are good and demand is strong. The consumer pays the opening price as soon as the offer is made and then, up to two years later, having paid the additional shipping costs and duty, takes delivery of the wine.
Top ten performers
Over the past 40 years, the following châteaux have proved to be solid investments
- Lafite
- Latour
- Margaux
- Mouton Rothschild
- Haut-Brion
- Léoville-Las-Cases
- Pichon-Lalande
- Cheval Blanc
- Pétrus
- Le Pin (since 1979)
Ten top investment buys
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Vintage
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Châteaux
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Best recent auction price
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1961
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Palmer
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£5,500
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1970
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Latour
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£2,600
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1982
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Le Pin
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£15,950
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1982
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Lafleur
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£4,950
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1986
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Mouton Rothschild
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£2,100
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1989
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Haut-Brion
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£2,800
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1989
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Pétrus
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£7,000
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1990
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Cheval Blanc
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£3,300
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1995
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Latour
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£1,500
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1996
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Margaux
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£1,760
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Ten investment flops
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Vintage
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Châteaux
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Best recent auction price
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1964
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Pontet-Canet
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£56
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1966
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Ormes-de-Pez
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£68
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1970
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Brane-Cantenac
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£155
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1975
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Margaux
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£616
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1976
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Haut-Brion
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£550
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1979
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Rausan-Ségla
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£75
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1980
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Léoville-Barton
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£92
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1994
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Lafite
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£620
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1994
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Latour a Pomerol
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£180
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Almost anything from the overpriced 1984 or 1997 vintages
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Fine Wine Tracker
Decanter Fine Wine Tracker is not intended to predict future results of wine auction prices. Wine prices and prices obtained at auction can vary. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Prices quoted are in duty-paid £s per dozen bottles only, château-bottled and exclusive of VAT, but include the buyer's premium, where charged.
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John Stimpfig takes a look at some of the great vintages and - with the help of the Decanter Fine Wine Tracker - assesses their performance over the years
While it is impossible to predict the future, the past shows that top Bordeaux wines from great vintages have proved excellent investment vehicles over recent years. Of course, there have been some major ups and downs, particularly with the 1997 Asian crash, which blew stocks and wine prices temporarily off course. But in general, wines from highly regarded Bordeaux properties have performed well, providing the right, all-important investment conditions apply.
To prove the point, we have looked back on the financial performances of three châteaux from four vintages. To do this we have used the Decanter Fine Wine Tracker to compare en primeur release prices (where possible) with those fetched at auction since 1978, when we began monitoring prices. It makes for some interesting and profitable reading.
THE WINES
Chateau Margaux: First Growth, from Margaux in the Médoc. Top-class investment wine, especially from great vintages.
Chateau Cos d'Estournel: Second Growth from St-Estephe in the Médoc. Another star performer which under Jean Guillaume Prats has produced some splendid efforts in recent years.
Chateau Grand Puy-Lacoste: Fifth Growth from Pauillac. A good-quality château that usually punches above its weight. Generally though, the property is not regarded as a blue chip investment wine.
THE YEARS
1961
A great Bordeaux vintage and, compared to today's release prices, the 1961s were hugely under-priced. For instance, the 1961 Margaux cost just £25 a case. So it is little surprise that this legendary vintage has performed well in financial terms. Forty years ago, there was no en primeur campaign or fine wine investment market to speak of. Since then, the fine wine market has become much more complex and developed as both demand and price have risen inexorably.
Margaux: Clearly, the top financial performer in the group is the First Growth. However, there have been ups and downs en route since the wine came onto Tracker's radar in 1978 at around £850 a case. Since then it has fetched a high of nearly £4,500 a case back in September 1998, having more than doubled in value since 1994. But by 2001, it had fallen back to a low of £2,750. Its most recent auction price in early 2006 was at £3,450 a case.
Cos d'Estournel: The 61 from this 'Super Second' St Estephe estate had risen in value to reach a creditable £935 in 2001. Since then it has plateau'd at a shade over £2,000 a case.
Grand-Puy-Lacoste: This was trading at a highly respectable £770 in 2001 and has now moved up to £920 a case. However, in February 2006, the wine had fallen back to £875.
1981
By the 1980s, wine was becoming recognised as an investment vehicle. But the decade also proved that price movement depended on the quality of the château, vintage and market conditions. This particular year, 1981, was regarded as a good vintage and has increased in price, but nothing like as dramatically as the following year's wines. As a result, this vintage has shown relatively little price fluctuation over the last two decades, even during the inflationary growth spurts of the early- and mid-1990s. Collectors and investors have shown relatively little interest in this vintage and, as a result, it has not shown a significant return on investment.
Margaux: Having been released at around £200/case, it finally began to move up steadily in price during the 1990s and was trading at £1,078 a case in February 2001. Three years on, it has moved up marginally to £1,155.
Cos d'Estournel: Originally released at around £75/case, this wine has shown reasonable improvement for the vintage and was sold in 2000 at £330. However, in the last five years the 81 Cos has more or less trodden water. The latest auction price in 2006 was just £345.
Grand-Puy-Lacoste: Also released at roughly the same price as Cos, this wine has shown an uneven financial performance. For instance, it went for a good price of £310 in 2000. But its most recent auction price in 2006 showed that it had slipped back to £231.
Source: Decanter Fine Wine Tracker
1982
The great 1982 Bordeaux vintage has been one the star performers over the last 20 years, in terms of quality, price and profitability alike. One major reason why the 1982s have done so well financially is because the en primeur prices were relatively low. This was also the first Bordeaux vintage to be bought into by the US, where collectors also took advantage of extremely favourable exchange rates. In part, this was attributable to Robert Parker who, in contrast to some critics, came out strongly in favour of the vintage and urged people to buy. Parker was proved right, the vintage did turn out to be truly great and prices have subsequently spiralled. So too has Parker's influence. Now his point allocations are a major factor in the investment potential of Bordeaux wines.
Anyone who invested in top-class Bordeaux at the en primeur offering from this vintage will have made money hand over fist. Unlike the 1981 vintage, it has outperformed all financial indices with huge returns. However, as the charts show, even the 1982s didn't really move dramatically in price until the mid 1990s. Since the Asian crash in 1997, both Margaux and Cos have fluctuated wildly and in 2004. Now though, in 2006, the wines are showing good returns again.
Margaux: anyone who bought en primeur at £270 a case will have made a good profit on this wine. In the last few years, there has been strong underlying growth with one or two ups and downs en route. In 2001, it was fetching £3,200 at auction which fell back to £2,400 in 2004. Now though, the latest price in February 2006 is up to just under £4,000 a case.
Cos d'Estournel: With a release price of around £100 a case this has been another good investment. However, the 82 Cos has had a fairly chequered recent past in terms of its financial performance at auction. In 2002, the wine was auctioned for a fraction over £2,000, after which it plummeted to £1,075 a case in April 2004. Now though, it has bounced back to just under £1,600 a case in 2006.
Grand-Puy-Lacoste: In contrast to the Margaux and Cos, this has put in a much more even performance, since 2002 when it was knocked down for around £300 a case. In April '04, it had rocketed to £820 a case and is now selling at around £990.
1989
This was another great vintage in Bordeaux. But a run of good years and high release prices have meant that the 1989s have not performed as well, in financial terms, as the 1982 and 1990 vintages. This is partly because the 1989s' opening prices were high, while the 1990s represented much better value, somewhat overshadowing their predecessors. Nevertheless, the vintage has increased in value and has not shown the fluctuations of the more sought-after 1982s.
Margaux: this wine was released at just over £420 a case, and so has more than quadrupled in value since 1990. However, compared to its price in 2004 (£1,570), this wine has shown very little movement and fetched just over £1,800 a case. Definitely one to hold for the time being.
Cos d'Estournel: this vintage has also trebled in value from its en primeur price of £180/case to £605 at auction in 2001. In 2005, it spiked at £825, but has since fallen to a most recent auction price of just £575.
Grand Puy-Lacoste: has performed well and easily outstripped its more illustrious competition. Its release price was £120 and by 2001, it had risen steadily to reach £462 at the end of 2000. Since then, it has only really nudged ahead to fetch £552 in February 2006.
2000
The famous 2000 Bordeaux vintage was the most hyped en primeur campaign of all time (though 2005 could conceivably eclipse it) thanks largely to the combination of the Millennium effect and stunning wines on both the left and right banks of the Gironde. Robert Parker predicted that release prices would be high for such extraordinary, across the board quality and he was proved right as Chateaux proprietors hiked their release prices by up to double the previous vintage. When the wines spiralled in value as the various tranches emerged, numerous pundits suggested that the vintage was massively over-priced and would crash back to earth. But in spite of their doom-laden predictions that the market wouldn't bear such price levels, the vintage has subsequently defied gravity and has continued to surge in value.
Margaux: Released at just under £1600 en primeur, the fabulous Margaux 2000 has nearly doubled in value in just five years, according to its latest hammer price of £2990 in early 2006.
Cos d’Estournel: The 2000 Cos was released at £495 and so far, very little of this wine has been traded at auction. Its latest saleroom price was down at just £431 a case. Whoever bought picked this up certainly got a bargain as its average merchant price is now around £550 a case.
Grand Puy Lacoste: This was released at £260 a case and since that time it has moved up to £340 at auction in March 2006.
Conclusion/Advice:
En primeur usually, but not always, represents the lowest price for top Bordeaux wines
Shop around for the best en primeur offers from reputable merchants
Generally, it pays to stick to the top tier of investment-grade properties from great vintages when investing. (See list of top ten performers)
Prices can (and do) go down as well as up
Read decanter.com's Bordeaux 2003 reports and Robert Parker's pronouncements as well as critics like Jancis Robinson.
Take into account all the en primeur costs
As a general rule of thumb, you should not normally sell within five years in order to maximise your ROI
Store the wine in professional cellars, in bond, and insure it for the full replacement value. (Most merchants are able to arrange this.)
Wine should not account for more than five to 10 per cent of your total investment portfolio
Ten top investment buys
Vintage, Châteaux & Best recent auction price
1961 Palmer £10,522
1970 Latour £3,410
1982 Le Pin £19,500
1982 Lafleur £8,580
1986 Mouton Rothschild £2,920
1989 Haut-Brion £4,400
1989 Pétrus £9,020
1990 Cheval Blanc £4840
2000 Margaux £2,990
1961 Latour £16,100
Ten top investment flops
Vintage, Châteaux & Best recent auction price
1964 Pontet-Canet £56
1966 Ormes-de-Pez £68
1970 Pichon-Baron £184
1975 Margaux £400
1976 Lagrange £66
1978 Rausan-Ségla £143
1981 Cantemerle £110
1994 Giscours £172
1994 Certan de May £181
Almost anything from the overpriced 1984 or 1997 vintages.
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