Chinese wine will conquer the world in terms of volume and fine wine, a recent study suggests.
According to the Future of Wine report, drawn up by London-based wine merchants Berry Bros & Rudd (BBR), China, which is already the world's sixth largest producer, will lead the world by the year 2058.
The report, which predicts the state of world of wine in 50 years, also says China will 'rival the best of Bordeaux'.
'I absolutely think China will be a fine wine player rivalling the best wines from France,' said Jasper Morris MW. 'It is entirely conceivable that, in such a vast country, there will be pockets of land with a terroir and micro-climate well suited to the production of top quality wines.'
Based on the opinions of its four Masters of Wine, the report also spelled out some encouraging predictions for lesser-known wine countries and stark warnings for other, bigger producers.
Climate change, it said, would favour eastern European countries such as Ukraine, Moldova, Croatia, Slovenia and Poland, as well as Canada, which, BBR said, 'could rival its American neighbour' the US.
The UK also stands to gain on its cross-channel neighbour, with the amount of English land devoted to wine production 'may rival that of France'.
Australia would be the big loser, it said, with the country too hot and arid to support large areas of vine.
'It will become a niche producer, concentrating on hand-crafted, terroir-driven, fine wine,' said the report.
Tasmania, it added, would be one of the beneficiaries.
By 2058, 'big brand booze' would dominate the market, with wine resembling cigarettes. It will be commonplace, said the report, to ask for 'Lindemans Light' or 'Waitrose White'.
'In 50 years, consumers will ask for wine by the brand name of flavour and won't know, or care, where it has come from,' said Morris. 'Grapes will be genetically modified to change a wine's taste and producers will add artificial flavourings to create a style wanted by consumers.'
Further predicted changes included off-shore floating vineyards, low-calorie wines, bulk wine shipping and environmentally-friendly packaging replacing glass bottles.
Others in the industry were more sceptical of the findings. Decanter editor Guy Woodward was unconvinced.
'While there's no doubt that climate change and increased ambition in certain regions will lead to a greater variety of wines on the shelves, the idea that China is going to be able to go from churning out large volumes of mediocre plonk to challenging the great names of Bordeaux and Burgundy in a mere 50 years requires a leap of faith,' he said. 'Half a century is a very short time in the overall evolution of the wine world, and I'd like to see how many Chinese and Ukrainian wine Berry Bros has on its shelves in 2058.'
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They're on pretty safe ground making predictions for 50 years hence. By that time they and at least 50 percent of the present world's population will no longer be around. Perhaps the experts would like to risk, say, a 10 year prediction.
Philip Styles, St-Gaudent, France
Would the four Masters of Wine be so kind to let us know how many vineyards they have visited in China to come to their stunning projection? And what they tasted at those vineyards when, or if, they were there in the first place. Otherwise, could we at least test them for what foreign substance they may have been inhaling or tasting when they came to their colourful conclusions.
CH'NG Poh Tiong, Singapore
If you loved the lead in toys from China, you will love the lead in the Chinese wine.
Ron Saikowski, Texas, USA
I have some doubts about the Chinese predictions as well (will terroir survive pollution?). But think of it: how long did it take New Zealand to become the 2nd largest grower of Sauvignon blanc in the world? One generation.
Patrick W Fegan, Director Chicago Wine School, Chicago, USA
I'm sorry but I think the Fine Wine Report must be written by people with limited knowledge of Chinese terroir, politics, climate, and market demand. I do a lot of work with oenological professors and professionals here on the ground in China and *nothing* that I have seen leads me to believe that China will either 'rival the best of Bordeaux' or produce fine wine in appreciable quantities.
With the nature of the extreme continental climate here (even allowing for effects of global warming) and the soil types available for planting combined with the fundamental governmental rules that control use and ownership of agricultural land and the state of the oenological industry (along with the actual development of the wine market here in China), there is little hope that the future of Chinese winemaking lies in fine winemaking.
I myself have tasted many of the wines made here (including being the only non Chinese invited to participate in the first ever Yantai, Shandong wine challenge) and although some wines are now reasonable quaffable in quality, the basic foundations of the industry here preclude any phenomenal development in wine making. There are a few wineries doing their best to produce a good quality product for a reasonable price, but they are few and far between.
The mere mention of China seems to be able to throw the wine world into a frenzy, but until there is more concrete knowledge about the actual situation here and less wild speculation, I see little hope for the frenzy to stop and for sense to prevail.
Fongyee Walker
I have done several consulting trips to various parts of China, and I would say the chance of it ever becoming a producer of serious wine is 2/5ths of b*gger-all. They simply do not have the climate!
Saying that little pockets of suitable micro-climate (sic) will be found is like saying England could be a producer good Cabernet S (a vine that is trellised on the south wall of a Barn somewhere in southern England apparently produces very good Cabernet in a good year). Come on, be serious.
And if climate change does occur, it will not make it any more suitable.
Mark Whisson
In 1990, I too thought " it is conceivable that, in such a vast country there will be pockets of land suitable to production of top quality wine".
After 10 years searching for a multinational company - there is no such pocket. China is a land bridge between the north pole and tropics. In the west where the summer is suitable the winters are so cold the vines die unless buried and then only survive for a few years. In the east where winters are slightly more tolerable tropical storms result in diseases I have only seen in the tropics and require daily spraying with very potent chemicals.
Finally, with increasing demand for food and current food shortages the world grape area will contract to a few premium regions.
Brian Freeman, Freeman Vineyards, New South Wales, Australia
Even if all this predictions are truth, most important part of this Future of Wine Report is that any kind of production of wine in China will create huge number of new wine consumers in China it self, and it will dramatically change the traditional route of wine from producers to consumers.
In the next 50 years, with average consumption of only 3-4 litters per capita a year, if not more, lots of wines will travel into China, so the demand will create big domestic production. How many people will live in China in 50 years, with a purchasing power that will be close to the developed countries? So wine will be coming to China the next 50+ years. And the beautiful wine story will go on and on in China, India and all around the globe, with all climate changes, lake the previous 3000 years.
Saso Velkov, Export Manager Tikves Winery, Macedonia
When will some people learn that making "great wines" is not just a question of climate, location and grapes? To claim that a country like China, cultural relationship to wine is close to zero, will one day, soon at that, make wines that will rival some of western civilization's greatest creations is naive to say the least.
Constantine Stergides
It took France how many years to become as renowned as they are, and China will do it in 50 years....some how I think not.
Predictions are great when you have no substantial proof to back it up. Love the speculation, it sounds similar to an archaeologist who finds something new and has no clue where it came from or what it did and then gives their view/opinions/speculations on the history/function of their find, no one actually knows what will happen but the big names in their perspective industries take a "gander" at the future and so be it!
Also the floating vineyards, I am a viticulturist and mechanical engineer by trade, so some simple things to think of.
A hectare of vineyards (10 000 sq m) has the dimensions 100m x 100m, a really large area to cover, then there would be the growth medium to think about, be it hydroponics, synthetic, organic, that alone is going to weight a massive amount (Ignore the logistics of volume for a second) then you have the plants to consider, the weight there is going to be huge and on top of that a relatively good harvest weight, lets say 4 - 8 tonnes per hectare. Depending on the growth method, bush vines, trellised, "whichever the experts at the time decide on" there will be more weight/volume issue to calculate. Oh I nearly forgot, the latitudes Globally where wine grapes grow at their best can have some pretty unpredictable weather at times. Tasmania, New Zealand, Canada would be out, they have rough coast lines at the best of times, those are just to mention a few.
What about salt issues, the plants would take up these salt via osmosis and that would affect growth, flavour and a million other factures concerning the grapes, always wanted a wine like this. I can here it now, "This is a lovely example of an oceanic rafted wine, it has a hint of berries with hand harvested sea salt, balanced by Atlantic seaweed, rounded off by a the complementing sea breeze
factors and dead fish aromas best served with Salt Marsh Lamb or live Oysters"
I think the only chance of a floating vineyard would be if somebody actually found Atlantis and refloated it, because it apparently existed around the time of the Greeks and they were pretty good at making wine at that time according to history.
Mike Niven
I had a wry smile on my face reading the article by BBR, taking it to be what I believe was a very tongue in cheek look in the crystal ball. I do not consider that they were serious when discussing taster bees, nor floating vineyards, and took comments on China in the same light.
Elaine Dickie
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They're on pretty safe ground making predictions for 50 years hence. By that time they and at least 50 percent of the present world's population will no longer be around. Perhaps the experts would like to risk, say, a 10 year prediction.
