Wine investment: What to look for in the fine wine market in 2026

Greater positivity pervaded the secondary market in late 2025, following a prolonged downturn.

Several variables have the potential to influence 2026 (see box, below), but stability was the watchword in January, rather than predictions of a fresh bullrun.

‘I don’t think prices will fall in the next year, but I struggle to see them going up meaningfully,’ said Geraint Carter, of international merchant Bordeaux Index and the LiveTrade online trading platform.

There may be exceptions, such as ‘pockets of demand’ pushing prices higher on wines with limited availability, he said. Pricing in some segments looked fragile, notably mid-tier Burgundy, he added.

Will Hargrove, head of fine wine at UK merchant Corney & Barrow, said: ‘I think it should be a year in which the market continues to improve. But I certainly don’t see it doing that in a dramatic or explosive sort of way.’

Liv-ex, a global marketplace for the trade, said that it expected the market to ‘bump along the bottom throughout 2026’.

It described this as an opportunity for new collectors to buy and drink fine wine, which would help with ‘building up sustainable long-term demand’.

Two questions

Carter highlighted Bordeaux wines from the 2009 vintage and before as one particular buying opportunity. ‘Prices look favourable [and] these wines are ready to drink, so they are supported by a consumption market.’

Sophia Gilmour, market analyst at Liv-ex, said: ‘As the possibility of broad market recovery becomes more of a reality, potential buyers should be asking themselves two questions – where have sellers been willing to capitulate, and which wines may provide the highest nominal gains?’

Gilmour added: ‘In terms of capitulation, 2021 Bordeaux [wines] have seen their prices slashed, generally below ex-chȃteau release prices.’

For buyers willing to incur higher risk, Gilmour said legendary producers such as Rayas (Rhône), Jacques Selosse or Salon (Champagne) and Domaine de la Romanée-Conti (Burgundy) will be of interest.

Prices for these fell sharply in the recent market downturn – after rising rapidly – and there could be more interesting offers, particularly if merchants need to raise capital.

The Bordeaux Index view

Fine wine & spirits specialist Bordeaux Index kindly sponsors this section of Decanter, and provides its view on the market here every issue. It can be found at bordeauxindex.com

The shape of 2026: The good, the bad and the uncertain

There are several reasons for cautious optimism in our corner of the wine market.

Some wines now look decisively oversold; Bordeaux 2021 is a case in point, as is Lafite, with price reductions re-engaging long-sidelined buyers.

Absolute value also seems to matter more. Super Seconds from solid vintages trading around £60-£70 will appeal to many, particularly when compared with village Burgundy from unproven producers at similar prices.

And categories such as pre-2009 claret, classic Rhône and Super Tuscans with a little age continue to enjoy consumption-driven support.

It’s also worth remembering that consumers typically moderate rather than disappear.

Asia has clearly been in a moderating phase, but there are signs of a gradual re-emergence of demand. But significant headwinds remain.

Investment overhang from the 2000-2020 bull market is still being worked through, with the most heavily speculated regions enduring the deepest corrections.

Finally, structural challenges loom large. An expanding universe of fine wines increases competition, benefiting drinkers but likely diluting returns.

Add climate change, declining consumption and more fragile luxury narratives, and it’s clear some headwinds will persist.

The year ahead feels finely poised. Opportunities will emerge, but a return to dramatic growth still feels some way off.

Latest Power 100 ranking released

St-Emilion powerhouse Château Cheval Blanc, cult Rhône producer Château Rayas and Super Tuscan standard-bearer Sassicaia have been highlighted in a new ranking of fine wine brands.

Cheval Blanc topped the latest Power 100 ranking by Liv-ex, a global marketplace for the trade, with Sassicaia producer Tenuta San Guido in second place.

Based on trading data in the year to 30 September 2025, the ranking offers extra insight into pockets of relative stability in a challenging market.

‘[Cheval Blanc] has not been immune to the downturn of the market,’ said Liv-ex, but a consistent approach to release pricing has helped to build its ‘strong reputation for quality and value’.

Spain’s Vega Sicilia came 16th, after heading the previous Power 100 ranking. While prices remained stable on average, it was particularly affected by US buyer caution in the face of import tariff uncertainty.

Vaunted Châteauneuf-du-Pape producer Rayas was fifth in the new Power 100 ranking, up 49 places on the 2024 edition. Prices rose 2.7% on average, ‘backed by substantial trade’.

The late Emmanuel Reynaud (pictured abvove), owner of Château Rayas in Chateauneuf-du-Pape Rayas wines have long been sought after by in-the-know collectors.

Geraint Carter, of merchant Bordeaux Index and online trading platform LiveTrade, said prices went ‘through the roof’ in the most recent market bull run before dropping sharply – by around 30% – and then rebounding in 2025 to some extent.

In November, inspirational Rayas owner and winemaker Emmanuel Reynaud passed away, prompting widespread tributes, including from Decanter’s Rhône correspondent Matt Walls.