Decanter Value Index: The best Bordeaux first growth vintages for collectors

First Growth Value Index — Picture

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Methodology

This analysis looks at the most recent vintages currently available for each of the five first growths.

For four of them, this covers the year 2014-2024. For Château Latour, which no longer participates in the en primeur system, this covers the older vintages of 2006-2016.

For each there is a graph which compares the prices (in bars) against their score (the gold dot).

The prices are provided by fine wine marketplace Liv-ex, using its ‘Market Price’ which is the ‘best listed price for a wine in the secondary market’.

Each price is also for a full case of 12 standard bottles of wine.

The scores are the most recent for each wine given by one of Decanter’s Bordeaux experts (largely though not exclusively current Bordeaux editor, Georgie Hindle).

Generally speaking, the larger the gap between a price and its score, the more interesting a particular vintage might be to a collector.

There are often times when buyers hone in on famous ‘on’ vintages and miss the fact that some producers out-perform in ‘off’ years (see box below).

This can create striking disparities where wines with the same score can be priced at wildly different levels, usually leaving those from ‘off’ vintages left significantly undervalued and underpriced.

That is the sort of oversight a canny collector can capitalise on to pick up a sought-after wine at a good price. The graphs and analysis below attempts to tease out where such instances seem to exist among recent vintages of the Bordeaux first growths.

This is not an exercise in suggesting or predicting vintages that will rise in value and does not constitute investment advice. Prices are correct as of time of publication but may change over time.

A full index card for each château can be downloaded from the link below each entry.

‘On’ and ‘Off’ vintages in Bordeaux

Referring to the market for Bordeaux wines, commentators occasionally use the term ‘on’ or ‘off’ vintages.

At it’s most basic level, ‘on’ vintages are the best, with high quality wines across the board and positive critical appraisal. As such they tend to be the most desirable vintages and will often attain the highest prices – both at release and over time in the secondary market.

Examples of recent ‘on’ vintages include: 2015, 2016, 2022

Clearly then, ‘off’ vintages are viewed as less-good-to-poor in quality with more mixed reviews. They will be less sought-after and not achieve the same level of demand, remaining (in theory at least) cheaper.

Examples of recent ‘off’ vintages include: 2017, 2021, 2024

Although a handy shorthand, the term lacks lot of nuance as no two ‘on’ or ‘off’ vintages are quite the same and estates can either underperform or outperform the vintage conditions thanks to a variety of factors as well.

Furthermore, it misses out on the sizeable strata of vintages – such as 2014, 2018, 2019, 2020 and 2023 – which are not quite classifiable as either.

They might have peaks as good as any ‘on’ vintage but also a greater or larger smattering of wines that are not quite as good but certainly not poor. Where do they fit in?

Perhaps we can borrow some fielding terms from cricket to create ‘mid-off’ and ‘mid-on’ categories as well.

The opinion of many critics is that – whatever the general view of a vintage – it is more important to pay attention to the performance of individual château from year to year and not overly-generalise and certainly not dismiss wines from each vintage out-of-hand.

Château Lafite Rothschild

Average case price (12×75): £4,391

Cheapest vintage: 2024 (£3,420)

Vintages of interest: 2024, 2021, 2020

Very even spread
Second most-expensive first growth on average
Most recent vintage is best buy if looking for lowest price
2021 is a 97-pt back vintage below £4,000 (12×75)
99-pt 2020 is both below the average price and cheaper than lower-rated vintages

Pre-eminent among the first growths, Château Lafite Rothschild is a regular fixture on the secondary market and its scores and prices reflect that in their correlation.

Nonetheless, there are a couple of vintages that catch the eye. As was noted when it was released en primeur this year, the 2024 wine is the cheapest vintage of Lafite currently available.

Rated 96-points by Hindle, its current market price sits comfortably below Lafite’s relatively high average price in this vintage range.

For buyers looking to get a foot in the door to an estate of this calibre, it’s an obvious place to start.

The 97-point 2021 at just below £4,000 per dozen may be another wine to investigate.

But it’s the 99-point 2020 that merits greater scrutiny here. In her in-bottle report on the vintage, Hindle called it ‘an utterly brilliant Lafite’ with ‘a sense of understated charm’.

At £4,200 per case, it’s below the estate’s average price and cheaper than several vintages rated 98-points by Decanter over the years.

Click here to download Lafite Rothschild’s index card

Château Mouton Rothschild

Average case price (12×75): £3,820

Cheapest vintage: 2024 (£2,880)

Vintages of interest: 2024, 2020, 2018

2024 again looks good value as the cheapest vintage
Big surprise is that the 100-pt 2018 and 2020 are cheaper than the 99-pt 2016 and 2022

Another renowned Pauillac first growth with a sizeable and active secondary market.

Like Lafite, the 2024 wine currently represents the cheapest available vintage from this estate and offers value from that standpoint.

With a 96-point score from Hindle it’s also cheaper than the similarly-scored 2021, 2017 and 2014.

The big surprise here is that the 2018 and 2020 both carry 100-points, yet are cheaper than the 99-point 2016 and 2022.

Popular opinion would contend that the 2016 and 2022 are among Bordeaux’s greatest vintages of the last decade – though 2018 and 2020 are both strong ‘mid-on’ vintages themselves.

Might Mouton have excelled in those latter vintages but lagged in price because of the ‘lighthouse effect’ of the other two?

Even if we made all four vintages 99-points, the price disparity remains worth investigating.

Click here to download Mouton Rothschild’s index card

Château Margaux

Average case price (12×75): £4,206

Cheapest vintage: 2021 (£3,060)

Vintages of interest: 2023, 2020

99-pt 2020 is significantly undervalued here
98-pt 2023 also looks good value against wines with the same score – under £4,000 per dozen
96-pt 2021 as the cheapest vintage might be worth a look as a drinking case

Château Margaux’s average price is slightly skewed by the outsize price of its legendary 2015 vintage. At £7,530 per dozen, it’s one of the most expensive single wines among the first growths.

However, it has also fallen in value considerably since it hit a peak of £11,900 (12×75) in 2022.

The immediate standout here is the 2020 vintage. Rated 99-points by Hindle who called it ‘a Margaux for the ages’, it’s available at a discount to four other vintages rated slightly lower at 98-points.

Meanwhile, the 98-point 2023 vintage currently priced at £3,740 per case (12×75) sits at a discount to its similarly-rated counterparts, which are all above £4,000 and above £5,000 for a case of the 2022 – a price gap of 39%.

As with the situation outlined with Mouton above, this may well represent an instance of the wider market favouring renowned vintages rather than taking the performance of estates into account on a vintage-to-vintage basis.

Click here to download Margaux’s index card

Château Haut-Brion

Average case price (12×75): £3,434

Cheapest vintage: 2021 (£2,800)

Vintages of interest: 2023, 2021

Cheapest of the first growths on average
97-pt 2021 is a steal at current price
98-pt 2023 likewise – cheaper than 2022 and 2018

Château Haut-Brion has long offered an excellent ‘in’ to the first growths by virtue of being the most affordable on average.

And its line-up here includes the cheapest wine of all – the 97-point 2021 at £2,800 per case (12×75).

Meanwhile, the 97-point 2016 is 50% more expensive!

There is a similar disparity between the 2023 and 2022. Both rated 98-points, the 2023 has a Market Price of £3,000, while the 2022 is 44% more expensive at £4,320.

Furthermore, Hindle said that the 2023 Haut-Brion had the chops to be ‘a potential 100-point wine’ – stay-tuned for next year’s in-bottle report to see if that comes to pass.

Both wines are currently available for below the average price for the last 10 vintages, making them extremely undervalued versus their peers and offering a potential buying opportunity for collectors.

Click here to download Haut-Brion’s index card

Château Latour

Average case price (12×75): £4,918

Cheapest vintage: 2007 (£3,790)

Vintages of interest: 2016, 2011, 2008

Most expensive first growth on average
100-pt 2016 looks very undervalued versus fellow 100 2010 and even 99-pt 2009
97-pt 2011 looking enticing at under £4,000 per dozen
Fairly decent consistent prices for wines around 95-pts

Since withdrawing from the en primeur process, Château Latour has been releasing stock it considers ‘ready-to-drink’ each spring.

The peak prices for its 2009 and 2010 wines – the latter currently priced at over £8,000 per case (12×75) – helps raise its overall average to be the most expensive of all the first growths.

Strip those heavy-hitters out, however, and many of its wines are priced similarly to those of its peers.

The obvious pick here is the 2016 vintage which was released earlier this year. Rated a perfect 100 by Hindle who called it a ‘monumental Latour’, it has a lot of catching up to do to catch the price of the illustrious 2010, which is nearly £3,000 more expensive.

But, at £5,600 (12×75) itself, it represents a fairly sizeable outlay in order to buy in.

Meanwhile, the 97-point 2011 looks like a bit of a sleeper. Rated by Jane Anson in 2021, she noted it was, ‘a delicious wine that stands out from many in the vintage’, with, ‘a ton of personality’.

It’s also considerably less expensive than some better-regarded vintages – a perfect example of the ‘off’ vintage effect.

Finally, among the estate’s core of 95-point wines, its the rather classic and reliable 2008 that stands out as the one of the least-expensive of all.

Click here to download Latour’s index card

Disclaimer: Decanter analysis is published for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Wine prices may vary and they can go down as well as up. Seek independent advice where necessary and be aware that wine investment is unregulated in several markets, including the UK. Prices correct at time of publication.

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