Investment: Will 2023 see a resurgence for Bordeaux?

Bordeaux could feature more prominently in the thoughts of investors and collectors in 2023, following price rises for top wines in other regions on the market, some merchants believe.

Data from Bordeaux Index’s LiveTrade trading platform showed some strong price rises for individual Bordeaux wines last year (see ‘Monitor’, below), yet other regions, such as Champagne, Tuscany and Burgundy, have continued to rise faster overall.

Bordeaux remains a cornerstone of fine wine trading, but LiveTrade CEO Matthew O’Connell said in his 2023 forecast: ‘We believe this could be a strong year for Bordeaux from a relative value perspective.’

He also added to Decanter: ‘We’ve thought for some time that Bordeaux is sort of cheap for the quality.’ As prices elsewhere rose, he said: ‘I think it became even more pronounced last year, because Bordeaux did have a sub-average year. If you assume the average is about 10% [price growth].’

The ‘value’ dynamic could benefit first growths and is particularly relevant to mature drinking vintages, O’Connell said. For example, Château Latour 2004 and SuperTuscan Sassicaia 2004 were recently trading at a similar price, he said, although top Latour vintages still carry a significant premium.

One can also look at relative value within Bordeaux. Among top-rated vintages, O’Connell said he believes 2016 in general ‘doesn’t have enough of a premium’.

Liv-ex, a global marketplace for the trade, said 7% of its members predicted a Bordeaux resurgence when asked about market prospects in 2023.

Both O’Connell and UK merchant Goedhuis & Co said Bordeaux could benefit from a recovery in buyer demand in China. Younger first growths may be interesting to watch in this context, Bordeaux Index said. Goedhuis still reported its overall Bordeaux sales up by 34% in 2022, excluding en primeur.

UK merchant Berry Bros & Rudd said in a 2023 trends report, meanwhile, that ‘savvy collectors are already looking ahead to the next St-Emilion Classification in 2032, with particular focus on Château Canon and Château Troplong Mondot – both candidates for promotion then.’

Not enough good news?

Opinions are mixed on the fine wine market’s general direction in 2023, however. Miles Davis, a wine investment specialist who also became a business partner at merchant Cuchet & Co, said he didn’t expect the market to fall, but a difficult economic backdrop would likely outweigh other factors.

‘My personal view is that there is not enough good news around for it to have an overall positive effect on the wider wine market and that the wine market will be quiet this year,’ he said.

Bordeaux 2019 making headlines

The Bordeaux 2019 vintage recently received more high praise from UK trade buyers and critics.

Prices have risen sharply since the en primeur campaign in summer 2020, with its warmly received discounts. Liv-ex data below shows first growth* price performance from UK en primeur release to February 2023:

• Mouton Rothschild 2019 Up 56.1% •
• Margaux 2019 Up 52.4%
• Lafite Rothschild 2019 Up 43.8%
• Haut-Brion 2019 Up 32.4%
• *Latour 2019 hasn’t yet been released

However, LiveTrade’s O’Connell said prices have more recently been flat or even drifted a bit. ‘I don’t think it’s reflective of the [2019] vintage, but I think it does reflect mainly that dynamic that if someone’s going to sell something, they’ll probably sell the 2019s.’

Bordeaux’s 2020 vintage is about to become ‘physical’ on the market. See our tasting report here.

Monitor: latest sales activity

Several vintages of Château Léoville Las Cases and Petrus saw strong price gains in 2022, according to data from Bordeaux Index’s LiveTrade online trading platform.

Léoville Las Cases 2014, 2012, 2011 and 2008 all rose strongly in price last year (see chart), making them some of the best-performing Bordeaux wines on LiveTrade. The St-Julien second growth has a strong following and the list suggests buyer interest in wines with a solid period of bottle age.

LiveTrade figures showed top risers last year included plenty of older vintages, such as Cheval Blanc 1995, Petrus 2001 and the lauded Château Margaux 1990. At auction, a five-litre jeroboam of Château Mouton Rothschild 2000 sourced direct from the first growth sold for €43,600 (£38,900; high estimate €40,000) at a Sotheby’s auction to benefit the Opéra de Paris at the end of January. The lot included a tasting at Mouton and lunch with co-owner Philippe Sereys de Rothschild.

While auction prices can vary, Mouton Rothschild 2000 has seen particularly strong price gains since its initial UK release more than 20 years ago at £1,580 (12x75cl in bond), as quoted by Liv-ex. In February 2023, Bordeaux Index’s LiveTrade was listing the wine for £21,500 (12x75cl in bond).

Tasted & rated for Decanter Premium

Le Dôme, St-Emilion Grand Cru, Bordeaux 2019

This vintage of Le Dôme shone when tasted by Decanter Premium editor and Bordeaux correspondent Georgina Hindle at the Decanter Fine Wine Encounter in London. ‘A riot of black and red fruit aromas on the nose, this smells lively and expressive,’ she wrote, giving the wine 96 points. ‘Generous and playful, yet this retains a seriousness in the precision and detail on show. A baby, but a pretty one with lots of potential.’ In short supply, the wine was £685 for 6x75cl in bond at Fine & Rare. Le Dôme opened a new winery in 2021, designed by Lord Foster’s architecture firm Foster & Partners.

The Bordeaux Index View

Fine wine & spirits specialist Bordeaux Index kindly sponsors this section of Decanter, and provides its view on the market here every issue. It can be found at bordeauxindex.com

Bordeaux had a reasonably quiet year in 2022. While prices rose by a healthy 6%, clearly performance from other regions – including Burgundy, Champagne and Tuscany – was significantly better. Trading volumes on Bordeaux Index’s online trading platform LiveTrade were up more than 25%, so there was no lack of market activity. But there was perhaps no obvious catalyst for price momentum, with a somewhat muted en primeur campaign and then slow Asian trading at the end of the year due to strict China lockdowns.

This year we see more positive potential, with two key factors likely to drive prices: i) a resurgence of Asian demand given China’s re-opening (likely to benefit the first growths more in the first instance); ii) on a relative value basis, Bordeaux looking more attractive vs regions such as Tuscany in a way perhaps unthinkable a few years ago (the benefit from this being broader across the spectrum). Top vintages tend to outperform in such markets, in the first instance at least.

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