Wine investment: Market malaise hits Bordeaux prices
Bordeaux has struggled for momentum in a sedate market and it’s unclear whether this lethargy will dissipate in 2025, but an upcoming reappraisal of the 2015 vintage is one to watch.
Bordeaux prices have dropped notably over the past 24 months, according to data from international merchant Bordeaux Index (see chart below).
This partly reflects a wider market malaise, although Bordeaux didn’t rise by as much as Burgundy, Champagne and Tuscany in the prior boom period.
Matthew O’Connell, CEO of the LiveTrade online trading platform at Bordeaux Index, said trading activity on Bordeaux ‘is pretty muted and it’s not obvious what the catalyst [for growth] is’. Bordeaux remains a cornerstone of the market, yet it has been facing a ‘significant stock overhang’, said Liv-ex, a global marketplace for the trade.
It said that a relatively high number of Bordeaux wines were trading below their release prices, although trading in older vintages, from 2009 and back, was more resilient.
Liv-ex’s Bordeaux 500 index fell 21.3% in value in two years to 31 December, and was also down 4.1% over five years.
The Fine Wine 50 index, which tracks first growths, has dropped 8.7% in five years. Several global trade leaders recently said to consultancy group Wine Lister that Bordeaux is likely to see resurgent demand in the next five years. O’Connell said that Bordeaux would likely benefit from any pick-up in the broader market.
Bordeaux 2015: 10 years on
Bordeaux Index’s annual ’10 Years On’ tasting in February focuses on the well-regarded Bordeaux 2015 vintage. This could be a prompt for buyers, depending on how critics view the wines, suggested O’Connell.
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Price performances have been mixed since en primeur. Château Haut-Brion 2015 was being offered on LiveTrade at its original UK release price of £4,250 (12x75cl in bond).
Château Margaux 2015, the final vintage of the estate’s late, great MD Paul Pontallier, was offered at £8,600 – double its UK release price. Figeac 2015 was up by 52% versus its UK release price, with Mouton Rothschild and Angélus up 2% and 8% respectively, LiveTrade data showed. La Mission HautBrion 2015 was down 25%
The Bordeaux Index view
Bordeaux currently occupies an unusual position in the fine wine market. It remains the most significantly traded region – due to the overall quantities available and prominence – but at the same time it has perhaps the most subdued relative demand dynamics across the collector base.
The trajectory of prices – which have been pretty flat across five years and down across the last couple – struggles to attract investment-focused buyers, while there is an argument that collectors are looking elsewhere and are potentially jaded by successive muted en primeur campaigns.
This makes for difficult reading for Bordeaux enthusiasts, due to the remarkably high quality and consistency levels of wines from the region – especially in the last decade or so. Some believe that a resumption in overall fine wine market momentum might particularly benefit Bordeaux, while others tend to think that the region has to make some changes in its pricing and distribution to catalyse overall activity.
We potentially sit between these two positions, retaining great enthusiasm for the region and its significance but conscious that certain changes could drive outsized recovery of interest.
Fine wine & spirits specialist Bordeaux Index kindly sponsors this section of Decanter, and provides its view on the market here every issue. It can be found at bordeauxindex.com.
Expert’s unsure about fine wine market’s future
Opinions are split among global trade leaders on when the fine wine market will see a broad return to growth, according to a recently released survey.
One quarter of the 53 CEOs and wine department heads surveyed by consultancy group Wine Lister said they expected the wine market to pick up again in 2025, but 49% of respondents said this won’t happen until 2026, and 26% said it would take until 2027 or later.
Respondents from Asia were the most downbeat. Those in the Americas were the most optimistic, with Europe-based trade leaders in the middle, said Wine Lister in its annual Wine Leagues report.
When asked what could help the market, 80% of respondents said lower release prices for fine wines and 68% said a stronger Asian market.
Lower interest rates and greater geopolitical stability were also cited as important factors.
Unico bucks the market trend
Vega Sicilia has reasserted its credentials as a name to watch on the market, and the 2015 vintage of its flagship Unico debuted in early 2025. Unico 2015 was offered at £837 per 3x75cl in bond in January (Bordeaux Index, Lay & Wheeler).
A month earlier, Vega Sicilia became the first Spanish winery to top the annual Liv-ex Power 100 ranking of secondary market performance.
Vega Sicilia was ‘one of 2024’s few bright spots’ in a subdued market, said Liv-ex, a global marketplace for the trade. ‘Starting from a relatively low level, [Vega Sicilia] trade value is up 455.8% on last year,’ it said.
Prices haven’t shot up, though. Unico 2013 saw relatively strong trading, but its price dipped 3% in 12 months to 3 January, Liv-ex data showed.
Matthew O’Connell, CEO of the LiveTrade online trading platform at Bordeaux Index, said Vega Sicilia generally sees good buyer interest. Auction houses Hart Davis Hart (HDH) and Christie’s offered a variety of Unico vintages in late 2024. Highlights included:
• Unico 1981 (9x75cl) sold for $5,377.50 Unico 1975 (£4,409; high e: $4,500, HDH)
• Unico 1995 (11x75cl) sold for $5,736 (high e: $5,500, HDH)
• Unico 2004 (12x75cl) sold for $3,824 (high e: $3,800, HDH)
• Unico 1970 in magnum (3x150cl) sold for $8,125 (high e: $7,500, Christie’s)
• Unico 1975 (3x75cl) sold for $2,500 (high e: $2,800, Christie’s)
Sales prices include buyer’s premium.
Disclaimer: Decanter’s Marketwatch pages are published for informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice. Wine prices may vary and they can go down as well as up. Seek independent advice where necessary and be aware that wine investment is unregulated in several markets, including the UK.
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Chris Mercer is a Bristol-based freelance editor and journalist who spent nearly four years as digital editor of Decanter.com, having previously been Decanter’s news editor across online and print.
He has written about, and reported on, the wine and food sectors for more than 10 years for both consumer and trade media.
Chris first became interested in the wine world while living in Languedoc-Roussillon after completing a journalism Masters in the UK. These days, his love of wine commonly tests his budgeting skills.
Beyond wine, Chris also has an MSc in food policy and has a particular interest in sustainability issues. He has also been a food judge at the UK’s Great Taste Awards.