Investing in California wine: slow but steady gains

There has been buyer and trade enthusiasm for California’s 2018-vintage releases, yet there is still a sense of the region finding its way on the international fine wine market.

Releases of top Cabernet Sauvignon and ‘Bordeaux blend’ wines from the 2018 vintage have added some spark to the California sector of the market this year. ‘We’re seeing much stronger demand for blue-chip 2018s than we did for the 2017s,’ said Ryan Woodhouse, domestic wine buyer for K&L Wine Merchants in the US.

Interest in 2018 also appears to be reflected in data from Liv-ex, which describes itself as a global marketplace for the trade. Liv-ex told Decanter in October that the most traded California wines by value on its platform so far in 2021 were:

• Screaming Eagle 2018, with a Liv-ex market price of £33,000 (12x75cl in bond)
• Scarecrow 2018 – market price £7,200
• Joseph Phelps, Insignia 2018 – market price £1,920
• Realm Cellars, The Bard 2018 – market price £1,360
• Opus One 2017 – market price £2,700

In volume terms, the most traded California wines on Liv-ex year-to-date were: Realm Cellars, The Bard 2018; Spottswoode, Cabernet Sauvignon 2018; Joseph Phelps, Insignia 2018; Opus One 2017 and Realm Cellars, The Bard 2017.

More generally, Liv-ex’s California 50 index, which tracks Screaming Eagle, Opus One, Dominus, Ridge Monte Bello and Harlan Estate, hit an all-time high in August. Ridge Monte Bello has performed best in the last five years, its sub-index up by nearly 77% in value.

In a report on the region for members in August, Liv-ex characterised California’s overall secondary market performance as one of ‘low volatility and slow but steady increases’.

California’s share of trades on Liv-ex has risen from 0.1% to 7.1% over the past decade, and the region was a big winner in the recent Liv-ex Classification 2021 (see November issue, p115).

Yet it isn’t all plain sailing. Matthew O’Connell, head of investment at Bordeaux Index, said several top California names – mainly from Napa – have significant potential, but there are key challenges around distribution and education.

There have been signs of distribution broadening; releases via the Place de Bordeaux, for instance, have been credited with giving more top California wines a greater international presence outside the US, such as in the UK.

But O’Connell said it was important to improve prospective buyers’ knowledge of the wines themselves. For Napa, ‘I think the Place [de Bordeaux] system doesn’t necessarily help on that front’, he said. ‘Where collectors understand the wines, they’re much more confident about buying them.’ Ridge, and also Dominus, are examples of wines that have built an understanding with buyers, he believes.

In terms of other names that look particularly interesting, O’Connell cited Hundred Acre, Harlan Estate and Colgin among those to watch.

Looking ahead, Woodhouse said 2019 appeared to be a strong vintage, ‘perhaps even surpassing 2018, at least in density and concentration’.

Beyond that, it remains to be seen how smaller production related to wildfires and extreme weather may impact the market. Smoke taint concerns hit production in parts of Napa Valley – and elsewhere – in 2020. Some estates made no wine on certain labels. In 2021, severe drought appeared to have curtailed yields, although several winemakers reported high quality.

Monitor: the latest sales activity

California riding high

A recent auction in the US conducted by Hart Davis Hart (HDH) has demonstrated solid buyer interest in several California big names.

‘Demand for top California wines was very strong in our September auction,’ said Marc Smoler, senior vice-president, client services at HDH.

Seventy lots of Harlan Estate wines fetched a combined hammer price of $306,450 (£224,534) versus a total pre-sale high estimate of $300,950, showed HDH data supplied to Decanter.

On the same basis, HDH sold 16 lots of Dominus for $34,050 (pre-sale high e: $29,600), eight lots of Scarecrow for $16,900 (pre-sale high e: $14,700) and nine lots of Screaming Eagle for $57,000 (pre-sale high e: $56,500).

Other top-selling names included Sine Qua Non, Spottswoode, Colgin, Joseph Phelps (Insignia) and Opus One.

‘Demand is strongest for mature vintages and 100-point wines,’ said Smoler. ‘Bidders are also on the lookout for special collections, exceptional provenance, and rare bottlings and formats.’

Liv-ex also reported increased trading on California wines. Realm Cellars’ Moonracer 2019 was the second most traded wine by value on Liv-ex in the week to 7 October, behind Château Haut-Brion 1998. Liv-ex quoted a price of £3,200 (12x75cl in bond) for Moonracer 2019.

Tasted & rated for Decanter Premium

Beaulieu Vineyard, BV Georges de Latour Private Reserve, Napa Valley, California 2018 96pts

Recently released in the US and also internationally via the Place de Bordeaux. Described by Decanter Premium editor Georgina Hindle as ‘an excellent 2018 from one of the oldest and most historic estates in Napa, filled with just the right density, power and structure’. A blend of 93% Cabernet Sauvignon, 4% Petit Verdot and 3% Malbec, Beaulieu Vineyard was selling the wine direct on its website for $145 per bottle or $1,740 per 12-bottle case.

In the UK, Farr Vintners was offering it for £1,380 (12x75cl in bond), and Justerini & Brooks was selling six-bottle cases for £690 in bond.

The Bordeaux Index View

Fine wine & spirits specialists Bordeaux Index kindly sponsor this section of Decanter, and provide their view on the market here. They can be found at bordeauxindex.com

The headline on California is that market prices have stabilised and in some cases begun to improve, following a challenging 12-18 months where a material weakness in sterling disrupted the UK market for these wines. However, at the same time, there has been little by way of catalyst for an upsurge in buying interest – 2018 was a strong vintage, but release prices were higher and there is some back vintage stock on the market at similar levels.

Has increasing distribution via La Place de Bordeaux shown signs of achieving its ultimate aim: greater participation from collectors (and perhaps also investors)? It is still early days, but releasing some of the top Californian wines alongside a disparate group of other global wines of varying significance is – logically perhaps – not necessarily achieving the aim as effectively as other routes might. Indeed, we question whether more of a classical, coordinated, California-only campaign via selected specialist merchants could have more significant merit.

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