Analysis: Will Bordeaux 2015 wines be good value long-term?

As major châteaux begin to release their Bordeaux 2015 en primeur wines, Decanter's Harry Fawkes looks at value compared to previous vintages for several estates.

This week has seen a flurry of en primeur prices released from the major châteaux. Early negociant prices for Bordeaux 2015 wines are between 10-25% up on the 2014 vintage, spurred on by posivitve early feedback from the trade and press.

A ‘modern’ vintage full of charm, says Steven Spurrier

However, the question still remains whether purchasing en primeur still has long-term value in a system that a suffered in recent years. To help form an answer to that question, Decanter has put together some facts and figures on five Châteaux that have already released pricing on their 2015 wines.

What the graphs show

Current In Bond (without duty or tax) price in the UK market of each vintage
The 2015 vintage with projected storage costs of £8 per 12 bottle case per year, combined with the cost of purchase
No inflation taken into account
Critics scores on wine not factored

Analysis

The 2015 vintage has followed four hard years for Bordeaux. 2010 is seen as the last critically acclaimed vintage. The 2011-2014 vintages initially struggled in the market, but recent Liv-Ex data has shown the fine wine market rebounding in recent months.

Fine wine market shows new energy

Where does this leave 2015? The graphs make it very clear that the Bordelais believe that 2015 will be held in the same esteem as 2010, 2005, 2000 and 1996 in terms of long term value. If the buyers of Bordeaux wines are of the same opinion, and choose their purchases well, they will still be able to find good value in the Bordeaux en primeur system with savings if they purchase now compared to in 10 to 15 years time.

So 2015 has impressive potential with the caveat of variation across the different communes – early notes praised Margaux and Pomerol especially above others.

If you are thinking of buying, the graphs show it won’t be plain sailing if you choose unwisely; there are not savings on every wine in every great vintage. It is all important to read around each wine, gather as much opinion as you can, before making your decision – to see all Bordeaux 2015 tasting notes and scores click here.

Will you be buying this year? Tell us in the comment section below.

Château d’Armailhac 2015 Score