Climate change not responsible for rising alcohol levels: study
- Wednesday 8 June 2011
A recent US report has cast doubt on winemakers' claims that climate change is responsible for increased alcohol content.
The report, ‘Splendide Mendax – False Label Claims about High and Rising Alcohol Content in Wine’ from the American Association of Wine Economists, analysed climate data from1992-2009.
This comprised 129,123 samples of wines, including 80,421 red wines and 46,985 white wines from all around the world.
It found that the heat index in most wine-making countries grew less than the rise in alcohol, and could not be attributed as the major factor driving the steady increase.
The heat index was created by averaging the daily high and low temperatures over the relevant growing season in the various countries sampled.
The research indicates, the authors say, that the average alcohol content in wine has increased by 1.12% over 18 years, from a mean of 12.7%.’
This, they say, is considerably higher than would be expected when set against the heat index, which predicts an average rise of 0.05% in alcohol per year.
‘It would take a whopping 20 degree Fahrenheit (6.67 Celsius) increase in the average temperature in the growing season to account for a 1 percentage point increase in the average alcohol content of wine.
The study also found discrepancies between alcohol content stated on labels and actual content in bottle. In 57% of the 100,000 samples the alcohol level was understated with the worst offending being New World red wine, which averaged 0.45 percentage points below the stated level.
Lead author Julian Alston of UC Davis cited other factors such as evolving market preferences as key contributors.
But laid the responsibility with winemakers: ‘Label claims appear to be biased towards a perceived norm, a desired alcohol percentage to report for a particular wine - red or white.
‘It may be profitable for the winery to give the consumer both the desired wine characteristics (including higher actual alcohol content) and the desired label characteristic, by understating the true alcohol content. This parable is consistent with explanations we have been given by some winemakers.’
Alston also pointed out that tax rates were a powerful inducement to distort alcohol information: Federal Wine Excise Tax is US$1.07 per gallon for wine of 14% alcohol or less, and US$1.57 per gallon for 14.1% to 21% alcohol.
As regards the reasons for the actual rise in alcohol around the world, the authors suggest there may be many climatological or cultural factors that have not been measured, but ‘our findings lead us to think that the rise in alcohol content of wine is primarily man-made.’

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Have your say!
Priyanka Gupta
August 23 12:09
can any one explain me in simple terms that why with increase in temperature the level of wine rises ans visa versa.
Nicolas
June 09 15:37
@Joseph Filippi: "I can always add back what nature took out, a little water"
In Europe watering the wine is forbidden as it is considered a commercial fraud
Pram Acharya
June 09 15:16
I copied this passage to point out the mistake in context.
"The study also found discrepancies between alcohol content stated on labels and actual content in bottle. In 57% of the 100,000 samples the alcohol level was understated with the worst offending being New World red wine, which averaged 0.45 percentage points below the stated level."
This is all well and good to talk about, but I find the final consumer has the biggest say with their purchases.
Greg Jones
June 09 14:58
Please note that the paper cited in this research is a 'working paper' ... yet it has been cited as peer-reviewed when in fact it is not. So the media picks up on it and it becomes fact!
As for the article, overall I think it is a good piece of work that examines a large amount of wine data, however the treatment of climate in the study is marginal at best and would not likely make it through a thorough peer-review process. Furthermore, after saying that climate does not have an affect, then at the end of the article the authors say that they could have the climate piece wrong, well of course they do ... but their statements have already said that climate does not! I think that they make an unsubstantiated statement that changes in climate have virtually nothing to do with changes in fruit and wine composition and of course alcohol. There are numerous peer-reviewed viticulture, enology, and climate papers that do a much more thorough treatment of the data and analysis that show that climate has a role in these fruit and wine trends. The authors use questionable climate data, likely the wrong climate parameters, and a time period that is insufficient to examine a climate structure and trend! While no one would ever say that changing climates are solely responsible for changes in alcohol, what most people don't get is that without the warmer climates of today growers/producers couldn't do the hang time that they now do ... it was basically impossible to do it 30-60 years ago! So while climates are changing at one rate, and alcohol is changing at another due to many mechanisms, what is being lost is that climate allows it to all happen.