Ultra-rare bottlings continue to find buyers. A 1.5-litre bottle of Bowmore STAC 55 Year Old single malt Scotch fetched a hammer price of £450,000 (£562,500 with buyer’s premium) at the Sotheby’s-hosted Distillers One of One charity auction in October.
Data from Bordeaux Index suggests long-term price growth for rare whisky has continued in 2023 (see chart below), although Matthew O’Connell, CEO of the merchant’s LiveTrade platform, said momentum has slowed a little.
He added: ‘We see demand for 30 [and] 40-year-old whisky from significant distilleries. This sells out quickly, [and] it’s hard to find on the market.’
Some data offers a more cautious view. A whisky sub-index published by Knight Frank and compiled by consultancy Rare Whisky 101 dropped by 4% in the year to 30 June, notwithstanding stellar 10-year growth.
Andy Simpson, managing director of private client business Simpson Reserved and contributor to Knight Frank’s luxury investment report, said price pressure was most acute at £5,000 per bottle and above.
A dip in prices on some bottlings may offer opportunities, he said. ‘I still believe in the rare whisky market.’ At the very high end, he also noted: ‘Super-expensive bottles are being consumed in quantities like I never saw years and years ago.’
In a report analysing auction sales data, investment bank Noble & Co said it remains cautious on the near-term price outlook for whiskies, citing macroeconomic factors.
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‘It’s quite a mixed market,’ said Duncan McFadzean, head of food and drink at Noble & Co. ‘The top end of the market still seems reasonably robust,’ he said. ‘The bottom end of the fine and rare market [£100 to £1,000 per bottle] is doing really well on volumes, but that shift in mix is bringing the average prices down.’
Macallan and Springbank were the top-selling brands at auction by volume and value in the year to 31 July 2023, said Noble & Co. GlenAllachie saw strong growth.
Beyond Scotch, top names to know include Karuizawa, Yamazaki and Pappy Van Winkle.
Casks have gained attention alongside bottles. A new group, the Cask Whisky Association, was recently formed to promote industry best practice and guidance for investors.
(Image credit: Credit Unknown)
The Bordeaux Index view
Fine wine & spirits specialist Bordeaux Index kindly sponsors this section of Decanter, and provides its view on the market here every issue. It can be found at bordeauxindex.com
It is difficult to express fully how much the global whisky market has changed in the last 10-15 years, with top Scotch and Japanese whiskies seeing price gains of five times or more (the 10-year compound annual growth rate is around 20%).
The key driver is an explosion in wealthy collectors and consumers, against the backdrop of a very limited supply of old and rare whisky. Not only did distilleries have no idea of the current demand context 30-40 years ago, the economic and industry situation was difficult and numerous distilleries were closed at that time.
Even compared to wine, whisky is an ultra-long term business – setting aside casks for ageing for 20-50 years, or indeed occasionally even longer. Even though today distilleries have generally increased capacity, minimised selling liquid for blending and taken other steps to increase liquid for ageing, it will take a long time to accrue stocks of aged whisky and this is exacerbated by the demand for younger liquid from global consumers.
We see the future trajectory of the whisky market as likely to remain very positive over the medium term and longer given this deep-rooted supply-demand imbalance.
Chris Mercer is a Bristol-based freelance editor and journalist who spent nearly four years as digital editor of Decanter.com, having previously been Decanter’s news editor across online and print.
He has written about, and reported on, the wine and food sectors for more than 10 years for both consumer and trade media.
Chris first became interested in the wine world while living in Languedoc-Roussillon after completing a journalism Masters in the UK. These days, his love of wine commonly tests his budgeting skills.
Beyond wine, Chris also has an MSc in food policy and has a particular interest in sustainability issues. He has also been a food judge at the UK’s Great Taste Awards.
